The One-Week Pre-earnings Momentum Trade With Options in Lam Research Corporation – CML News

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Disclaimer
The results here are provided for general informational purposes, as a convenience to the readers. The materials are not a substitute for obtaining professional advice from a qualified person, firm or corporation.

PREFACE
There is a bullish momentum pattern in Lam Research Corporation (NASDAQ:LRCX) stock 7 calendar days before earnings, and we can capture that phenomenon explicitly by looking at returns in the option market. The strategy won’t work forever, and in fact, it hasn’t even won more often than it has lost. But since the winning trades are so much larger than the losing trades, it has returned 83.6% even with a win rate that isn’t above 50%.

LOGIC
The logic behind the test is easy to understand — in a bull market there can be a stock rise ahead of earnings on optimism, or upward momentum, that sets in the one-week before an earnings date. Now we can see it in Lam Research Corporation.