The Thursday Market Minute
- Global hit lowest level in three months as China pulls Asia to 11-month low amid trade war pullback.
- Copper slides to three-month, U.S. yield curve continues to flatten as investors watch signals of a broader economic slowdown.
- Oil prices ease from near-four year highs as dollar tests near year-to-date peak, but falling U.S. crude stocks and OPEC supply questions keep markets bullish.
- Wall Street futures hold early gains, but equity market sentiment soured by comments that President Trump is “not retreating” on China.
Global stocks weakened again Thursday, with shares in Asia falling to the lowest level in nine months, as investors continue to count the cost of trade tariffs and protectionism among the world’s biggest economies.
The market’s sentiment was further soured by signals that growth is starting to slow as a result of the tit-for-tat trade wars that have escalated since early March, and a statement from Donald Trump’s top economic adviser that the President was “not retreating” in his approach to trade with China. With the U.S. Treasury yield curve showing persistent signs of a slowdown, copper prices falling to a three month low and oil rising to the highest in nearly four years, investors appear increasingly concerned that the global equity market rally may have run its course.
That was echoed Thursday by the European Central Bank, which said in its regular monthly economic bulletin that “The near-term prospects of greater trade protectionism have increased, which could have a significant impact on global activity and trade.”
“Other downside risks relate to the possibility of a further tightening of global financial conditions, disruptions associated with China’s reform process and geopolitical uncertainties associated, in particular, with Brexit-related risks,” the ECB said.
Against that backdrop, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index fell 0.52% into the close of trading Thursday, hitting the lowest level in nine months earlier in the session as markets in China continued to extend declines amid the ongoing trade war rhetoric and a move by the White House to more-closely probe potential investments into the U.S. tech sector under the guise of national security concerns.
Pessimism still prevails in Chinese stock market.#Shanghai Composite broke through 2800 mark for the first time in more than two years, down near 1% to close at 2786 on Thursday.#Chinext lost 0.2% to 1543. pic.twitter.com/BJ3P1EdMUW
— YUAN TALKS (@YuanTalks) June 28, 2018
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was little-changed by the close of trading in Tokyo for the second day in a row as investors continue their preference for cash and safe-haven assets amid the trade war uncertainty and warnings from the auto sector over the potential damage rising tariffs will have on one of the world’s most important industries.
European stocks were weaker at mid-day with the Stoxx Europe 600 falling 0.74% from its Wednesday close while benchmarks in German (-1.16%) and France (-0.6%) gave back earlier gains. London’s FTSE 100, however, was trading modestly lower, with a 0.19% decline, even with both the euro (1.1579) and the pound (1.3082) holding at multi-week lows against a resurgent U.S. dollar.
— DailyFX Team Live (@DailyFXTeam) June 28, 2018
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six global currencies, traded at the highest level since July 2017 overnight, rising 0.08% to 94.381, even as benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields slipped to 2.83%.
That move continued the so-called ‘flattening’ of the yield curve, a condition in which the difference between 2-year and 10-year bond rates narrows, to a difference of just 0.32%, the lowest since 2007.
This ‘flattening’ of the yield curve is often associated with slowing economic growth, while an inversion of the curve, when 2-year bond rates are higher than 10-year rates, is quite frequently taken as a sign of potential recession. Benchmark 2-year Treasury yields were marked at 2.504% while 10-year notes traded at 2.825%.
Watch more about the yield curve below.