Apple Stock Looks Like A Buy At $142

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Apple stock (NASDAQ:AAPL) declined by about 9% over the last month and remains down by roughly 1% over the past week. While the decline is driven in part by the broader market sell-off, amid rising bond yields, Apple also saw a legal setback relating to the Epic Games v. Apple case, as a District Judge ruled that Apple must allow app developers to offer links to alternative payment methods in applications sold via the AppStore, bypassing Apple’s commissions (typically 15% to 30%). However, we think that Apple stock has some room to run from current levels. We value the stock at $157, about 27x projected FY’22 earnings, marking a premium of 10% over the current market price of about $142 per share. There are a couple of factors driving our moderately bullish stance. See our dashboard analysis Apple Valuation: Expensive or Cheap for more details.

Apple appears to be set for a robust upgrade cycle with the launch of its new iPhone 13 lineup, which features meaningful camera and battery upgrades. The company is also looking to avoid the supply shortfalls it faced with iPhone 12, with suppliers apparently building as many as 90 million new iPhones this year, a 20% bump over its initial production run for last year’s flagships, per Bloomberg. Carrier promos for the new devices also appear attractive, as wireless carriers look to sign on customers for their recently built out 5G networks. Stronger momentum in the iPhone business is always a big catalyst for Apple stock, and this could be validated as Apple publishes Q1 FY’22 earnings.

Apple’s services business is also poised to hold up despite the recent setback on the AppStore payment front, driven by a growing installed base of iDevices and newer digital services such as Apple TV+ and Apple Fitness+. Apple also avoided a bigger potential setback to its AppStore business, as the District Judge in the Epic case rejected Epic Games’ claims that the AppStore is a monopoly. This could remove some overhang over Apple’s stock and services business.

So is Apple stock poised to rise in the near-term, following a 9% decline over the last month? The Trefis Machine learning engine, which leverages ten years of stock price data, estimates that there is a 56% chance of rise in Apple stock over the next month. See Apple Chances of Rise for more details.

[9/13/2021] How Does The AppStore Payments Ruling Impact Apple Stock?

A District Judge has ruled in the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) vs. Epic Games case last week, noting that Apple must allow app developers to offer links to alternative payment methods in applications sold via the AppStore. Until now Apple’s own payment system has been the only option for developers and Apple typically takes a commission of between 15% to 30%. However, the Judge rejected Epic’s claims that the AppStore is a monopoly. This was actually the bigger legal risk for Apple and the news should come as a major relief for investors. Apple stock declined around -3% in Friday’s trading, not a big hit considering that the stock remains up by about 15% year-to-date and by almost 30% over the last 12 months.

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Now the ruling on payments does mark a blow to Apple’s highly lucrative App Store business, which we estimate accounted for about $18 billion in Apple’s FY’20 revenue. It’s probably safe to assume that Apple will lose out on a couple of billions in AppStore-related sales annually, as developers look to steer customers to their own lower-cost payment options. However, we think that this is something Apple can manage in the long run for a couple of reasons. Firstly, many developers and customers could continue to prefer Apple’s own in-house payment option, due to its convenience and seamless integration with the iPhone experience. Moreover, Apple’s services business has been growing rapidly, with sales rising 29% over the first nine months of FY’21, driven partly by the introduction of new subscription services, and this could help to mask the longer-term impact of the hit on AppStore revenues.

Our dashboard Breaking Down Apple’s Services Revenue estimates the revenue figures for AppStore, Apple Music, Apple TV+, iCloud, Third-party Subscriptions, Licensing, Apple Care, and Apple Pay.

[5/5/2021] What’s At Stake For Apple As Epic Case Goes To Trial? Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) highly lucrative services business faces its biggest legal challenge yet, as the Epic Games lawsuit against Apple and its AppStore went to trial on Monday. Epic alleges that Apple’s AppStore is an anti-competitive marketplace, that locks in customers and diminishes the earnings of mobile app developers. The game developer sued Apple back in August 2020 after its popular Fortnite game was removed from the AppStore shortly after Epic let players bypass Apple’s in-app purchase system, avoiding the 30% commission on sales. So what’s really at stake for Apple and its services business?

Apple has been increasingly counting on selling digital services to drive profitability and stabilize its revenues, which have been somewhat volatile in recent years. Services accounted for about 19% of Apple’s total revenues and about 31% of gross profits over its most recent quarter (Q2 FY’21). Apple has also launched a slew of new service offerings in recent years, ranging from fitness tutorials, paid podcasts, and streaming video. However, we believe that the AppStore and the commissions from third-party subscriptions, both key targets of the Epic lawsuit, still account for a bulk of its services earnings, since they primarily comprise commissions (typically 15% to 30% of the purchase value). We estimate that the two services revenue streams together accounted for about $23 billion of Apple’s roughly $54 billion in services sales last year. While we wouldn’t speculate on the possible outcome of the case, it’s clear that Apple’s earnings would see a meaningful impact if it were forced to reduce commissions considerably or allow app developers to bypass its store.

Our dashboard Breaking Down Apple’s Services Revenue estimates the revenue figures for AppStore, Apple Music, Apple TV+, iCloud, Third-party Subscriptions, Licensing, Apple Care, and Apple Pay.

[8/17/2020] Epic Lawsuit Hits Apple’s Stock Where It Hurts

Last week, Epic Games sued Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) for antitrust violations, after its popular Fortnite game was removed from the AppStore shortly after Epic let players bypass Apple’s in-app purchase system, avoiding the 30% commission on sales. Although Apple has had spats with developers in the past, the Epic lawsuit is noteworthy for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the Epic lawsuit comes at a time when tech giants, including Apple, have been facing increasing scrutiny from regulators regarding their market power. Secondly, Apple is more dependent on its Services business than ever before, with hardware growth slowing (profits from Services grew 5x as fast as hardware profits over the first three-quarters of FY’20), and Epic’s lawsuit targets Apple’s commissions, which we estimate are Apple’s single most profitable revenue stream.

Apple made roughly about $360 million in commissions from Fortnite over the last two years per Sensor Tower – a relative drop in the bucket for Apple which pulled in $260 billion-plus in revenues last year. [1] However, if Epic sees a favorable judgment, and if Apple is forced to reduce its commissions or change the terms of its AppStore, this is very likely to set a precedent, causing other developers to demand similar terms.

So what could be the financial impact of Apple reducing commissions across the board? Apple takes a 30% cut on App sales and subscriptions (15% from the second year of subscriptions) and we estimate that total commission revenues stood at almost $20 billion in FY’19 (out of a total of about $46 billion in Services Revenue). If Apple reduced commissions to say 20% from 30%, it would reduced total commissions by about $7 billion to roughly $13 billion. Although the revenue impact would be limited for Apple (under 3% of Apple’s Total Revenue) the impact on profits would be more pronounced given that commissions are likely to be almost entirely profit. We estimate that Apple’s Operating Income would be about 10% lower if commissions were reduced, considering Apple posted about $64 billion in Operating Income in FY’19.

Now commissions of 30% are actually pretty standard across the industry – Alphabet’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Google, which also faces a similar lawsuit from Epic, as well as Microsoft and Amazon, charge roughly the same fees on app sales on their respective market places. However, Apple has the most to lose from this given the sheer scale of its business. AppStore revenues are roughly twice as large as Google’s Playstore.

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