QuantumScape Stock Remains Overvalued Despite Morgan Stanley Downgrade

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QuantumScape (NYSE:QS) has the potential to lead the electric vehicle (EV) revolution due to its solid-state battery technology. That potential has fueled a 87% gain in the QS stock price over the last 12 months.

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The technology is a gamechanger in many respects. Volkswagen (OTCMKTS:VWAGY) seems to see it that way, as it has made a near-$200 million in the company, a validation that QuantumScape can bring its patented invention into production and make significant progress towards making EVs practical for consumers everywhere.

QuantumScape has been testing its batteries, and the results have been very promising. A third-party lab analyzed one of these units, reporting excellent results. It should not come as a surprise. Before this report, QuantumScape published performance data for its solid-state four-layer battery.

The results are encouraging, and it’s worth noting that no competitors have come close to the level QS has achieved. The company is also working actively on a 10-layer battery cell. It is denser and can store more energy. Quatumscape’s business projections are under the scrutiny of many. But management has done a fine job of keeping investors updated.

Now that 2021 milestones are in the rearview mirror, investors eagerly await the actual early-stage implementation of cells and Volkswagen sampling. These are excellent near-term catalysts for QS stock. However, overvaluation concerns are increasing.

Despite the steep fall in value recently, the market capitalization at $14.31 billion is massive, though common with companies like QuantumScape. But you need to pick and choose your spots wisely.

A similar sentiment was shared by Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analyst Adam Jonas, who lowered his rating on QuantumScape and cut his price target to only $40 a share from $70 per share.

Test Results Paint a Rosy Picture

Published findings from a third-party laboratory on the company’s solid-state lithium-ion battery showed the single-layer cell reached more than 800 cycles — approximately equal to 240,000 miles driven for a 300+ mile range vehicle.

Mobile Power Solutions’ test results are a welcome development for investors. The cycle-life test was run with an operating temperature of 25 °C and under 3.4 atmospheres of pressure.

It’s been a little over three months since Quantumscape first released the findings. They say that the results, which covered an entire group of single-layer cells, have now been confirmed once more with the latest round of third-party tests. It makes Quantumscape stand out from other companies making claims about successful or not-so-successful outcomes based on testing methods alone.

The next generation of car batteries will be more powerful and cost-effective than ever. With a battery that operates past 240,000 miles in operation, it is clear to see the benefits for Volkswagen and other OEMs. The latter are looking forward to partnering with this company in the future.

Long Road to Commercialization

I can understand why some investors may be hesitant due to the lack of revenues until 2024. But there is no need for alarm. Over the last quarter, the management team has been releasing information that is alleviating investor fears. And the markets are responding in kind.

With the recent push toward renewable energy sustainability, we’ve seen a large corporate-backed movement to invest in ESG stocks. The market is not going to slow down anytime soon regardless of who is in office; with such an active name like Quantumscape stock, it makes sense that some may be hesitant about making big investments in these types of volatile areas.

However, you need to realize that the road to a green future is a part of a larger secular trend. Although some governments are more serious than others, there is an overall recognition regarding the need to combat climate change. That will lead to several short-term catalysts you can exploit.

Just take the example of President Joe Biden signing a $1 trillion infrastructure bill into law. The American public is in for a big surprise with this new bill. The incoming president has proposed trillions of dollars worth of infrastructure investment, clean energy research, and development projects. The bill outlines a plan to set up electric vehicle charging stations across the country.

Understandably, this has a broad effect on EV stocks like QS stock. Such developments will continue to take place until commercialization.

Yet, QS Stock is Overvalued

The EV market is just beginning to blossom. But the trend is clear, and there’s potential for an immense payoff. In this emerging industry are technology choices that power these vehicles: batteries of all shapes and sizes, including QuantumScape’s solid-state battery–which investors instantly recognized as a way forward.

The only thing going against the stock is its high price multiples. Morgan Stanley’s research of the EV battery market has brought to light risks and potential fragmentation of a rapidly expanding industry.

That was the reason why analyst Adam Jonas downgraded his forecast for QS stock despite still considering them as leaders in this space.

On the publication date, Faizan Farooque did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Faizan Farooque is a contributing author for InvestorPlace.com and numerous other financial sites. Faizan has several years of experience in analyzing the stock market and was a former data journalist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. His passion is to help the average investor make more informed decisions regarding their portfolio.

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