Nasdaq ekes out gain, S&P 500 and Dow extend losing streaks as Wall Street warns of more than 3 Fed rate hikes in 2022

view original post

By Vivien Lou Chen and Mark DeCambre

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index eked out a slight gain in the final minutes of trading on Monday, after bearing the brunt of a broader stock selloff earlier in the day, while the S&P 500 and Dow industrials extended their losing streaks, with worries about Federal Reserve policy reverberating in financial markets. Three Wall Street firms — Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Deutsche Bank AG — said they see the Fed delivering more than the three rate hikes that policy makers have penciled in for this year.

How did stock indexes trade?

What drove markets

Investors positioned for the prospect of higher interest rates as soon as March, with parts of Wall Street joining many economists in saying the Fed has waited far too long to hike. Traders also braced for a consumer-price report on Wednesday that could show a 7% headline year-over-year rise for December, a level which may not let up until the March reading.While still around some of its lowest level since mid-October, the Nasdaq avoided closing below its 200-day moving average, at 14,688.73, for the first time since April 21, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It also stayed above the 14,451.69 level that would have marked a correction, or 10% fall from its recent peak.Read: As stock market unravels Monday, here’s the level the Nasdaq needs to defend to avoid a correction

In an interview that aired on Monday, JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon told CNBC that the U.S. is headed for the best growth in decades, and that he’d be surprised if the Fed hikes by only four times this year. That’s more than the three hikes signaled by Fed officials in their December projections.Economists at both Deutsche Bank (DBK.XE) and Goldman Sachs (GS) expect four rate hikes this year, and a reduction of the Fed’s more than $8 trillion balance sheet that could begin in the third quarter. But Deutsche’s researchers also see the possibility that policy makers might need to consider hiking interest rates at almost every meeting in 2022 “unless financial conditions notably tighten,” Jim Reid, head of thematic research, and others wrote on Monday.See: Almost every Federal Reserve meeting in 2022 could be potentially `at play’ for a potential rate hike, Deutsche Bank saysGoldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a late Sunday note that “declining labor market slack has made Fed officials more sensitive to upside inflation risks and less sensitive to downside growth risks.”Friday’s labor report came in at 199,000 jobs in December, worse than forecast, but it also showed a decline in the unemployment rate to a pandemic low and a rise in wages. The labor-market reading came after Fed minutes released last Wednesday signaled that policy makers are eager to tighten financial policy to battle inflation, with market-based projections pointing to at least three interest-rate increases this year.

Also read: Jekyll-and-Hyde U.S. jobs report not as ugly as it looks

Some analysts are adopting a much more sanguine view of the market’s outlook, despite the imminent tightening of financial conditions. On Monday, BlackRock Investment Institute’s global chief investment strategist, Wei Li, and others said that although central banks will move away from emergency stimulus, they won’t necessarily “hit the brakes by raising rates to restrictive levels.” In addition, the three rate hikes being penciled in by policy makers for this year is “more than we expected.” “We prefer equities and would use COVID-related selloffs to add to risk,” they wrote.

Check out:Why New Year’s chaos may signal a more balanced — but volatile — stock market in 2022 as investors grapple with a hawkish Fed

Later in the week, investors will watch the confirmation hearing of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, followed by one for Lael Brainard, the Fed governor who has been nominated to become the central bank’s No. 2 after Vice Chairman Richard Clarida steps down. Clarida announced late Monday he would resign effective Jan. 14, two weeks before his term was due to end.

See:Fed’s Powell pledges to prevent inflation from developing deep roots

Which companies were in focus?

How did other assets fare?

Steve Goldstein contributed to this article.

-Vivien Lou Chen


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-10-22 1702ET

Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.