The stock market is lower Friday following the massive equity selloff in the previous session.
Longer rates are moving up. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 5 basis points to 3.12%.
“What’s dangerous about yesterday’s huge market slump is that there must be an element of doubting the ability of there to be an effective ‘Fed Put’ in this cycle following a 30-40 year period where the central bank has almost always been able to come to the market’s rescue,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid said.
“I can’t help but think that a great deal of the reaction yesterday was the appreciation that whilst the Fed can make soothing pronouncements, they are starting from an extraordinary difficult starting point, and with limited flexibility to respond to market or economy concerns whilst they fight inflation.”
Nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in April, and wage inflation eased, but the labor force participation rate arrested its upward trend, falling back slightly.
“What’s not clear at this point, though, is whether the slowdown in payroll growth is a temporary hit triggered by the Ukraine war and the accompanying jump in energy prices, or an inevitable consequence of employment recovering most of the plunge triggered by the pandemic, or a more alarming downshift caused by the tightening of financial conditions,” Pantheon Macro’s Ian Shepherdson said. “We think the latter is unlikely; it’s just too soon.”
“Chair Powell was very clear Wednesday that the Fed currently intends to hike by 50bp in both June and July, but if the wages numbers continue to signal a meaningful slowing we think the July 50 is not a done deal. Bear in mind that inflation will fall sharply over the next three months too, and we expect the housing market downturn to be undeniable in the data by then too.”
See the stocks making the biggest moves this morning.