Could The Market Be Wrong About New Gold Inc. (TSE:NGD) Given Its Attractive Financial Prospects?

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With its stock down 22% over the past month, it is easy to disregard New Gold (TSE:NGD). However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financial performance over the long term, which in this case looks quite promising. Particularly, we will be paying attention to New Gold’s ROE today.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder’s equity.

See our latest analysis for New Gold

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders’ Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for New Gold is:

13% = US$118m ÷ US$933m (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2022).

The ‘return’ is the yearly profit. One way to conceptualize this is that for each CA$1 of shareholders’ capital it has, the company made CA$0.13 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company’s future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or “retain”, we are then able to evaluate a company’s future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don’t necessarily bear these characteristics.

New Gold’s Earnings Growth And 13% ROE

To start with, New Gold’s ROE looks acceptable. And on comparing with the industry, we found that the the average industry ROE is similar at 14%. This certainly adds some context to New Gold’s exceptional 25% net income growth seen over the past five years. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For example, it is possible that the company’s management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

We then performed a comparison between New Gold’s net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company’s growth is similar to the average industry growth of 25% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company’s expected earnings growth (or decline). Doing so will help them establish if the stock’s future looks promising or ominous. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if New Gold is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is New Gold Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

New Gold doesn’t pay any dividend currently which essentially means that it has been reinvesting all of its profits into the business. This definitely contributes to the high earnings growth number that we discussed above.

Summary

In total, we are pretty happy with New Gold’s performance. In particular, it’s great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a sizeable growth in its earnings. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company’s fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst’s forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.