Can Tripadvisor’s Stock Rebound After An 11% Decline??

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Tripadvisor’s stock (NASDAQ NDAQ : TRIP), an online travel company providing booking for hotel reservations, transportation, lodging, travel experiences, and restaurants, has declined by almost 11% over the last five days (one week) and currently stands at around $23. In comparison, the broader S&P500 index remained largely flat over the same period. The company saw a mixed earnings report, with revenues beating expectations but earnings missing consensus marginally. TRIP’s Q1 revenues grew 113% year-over-year (y-o-y) to $262 million and its adjusted EPS came at a loss of 9 cents compared to a loss of 39 cents in Q1 2021. The company’s stock declined largely due to concerns about rising costs. An increase in direct credit card payment costs, 93% growth in selling and marketing expenses, and increases in general administrative expenses contributed to a 36% y-o-y increase in Q1 operating expenses. While the company did narrow its bottom-line loss significantly, it still could not reach profitability quite yet.

It should be noted that travel trends were favorable in both the categories of Experiences & Dining, as well as Hotels, Media, & Platforms in the quarter. During Q1, the two businesses experienced growth of 229% and 82%, respectively. In fact, the average monthly user base also grew 27% to reach around 75% of its 2019 level. Tripadvisor has other businesses, such as Viator and TheFork, which could offer a lot of value. This is because both these businesses saw a faster recovery than the main Tripadvisor hotel business in 2021. While Viator offers travel experiences on its platform, TheFork (LaFourchette) is a restaurant reservation app primarily available in Europe, similar to OpenTable for the U.S. market.

Now, is TRIP stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 58% chance of a rise in TRIP stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Tripadvisor’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ’Event Probability’ and ’Chance of rising’ using last ten years’ data

[1] Returns of -11% or lower over a five-day period on 94 occasions out of 2516 (4%); Stock rose in the next five days in 47 of these 94 instances (50%)

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[2] Returns of -11% or lower over a 10-day period on 226 occasions out of 2516 (9%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 119 of these 226 instances (53%)

[3] Returns of -12% or lower over a 21-day period on 374 occasions out of 2516 (15%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 217 of these 374 instances (58%)

It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. TRIP Peers shows how Tripadvisor’s stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

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