Rivian finds itself in the red once again on Tuesday after kicking off the week with the stock’s worst day ever, dropping more than 20% on Monday after Ford announced it will sell 8 million shares, or about 7.8% of its investment in the electric auto maker.
The big news, and the major drop in the stock, come as Rivian is gearing up to report earnings for just the third time as a publicly traded company on Wednesday. Options traders are betting that more bad news from that tape will drive the shares even lower.
“Rivian traded more than six times its average daily put volume. We saw puts outpacing calls by [a ratio of] 2.6 to 1. Right now, the options market is implying a move, if you can believe it or not, by more than 17% by the end of the week,” Michael Khouw, chief investment officer at Optimize Advisors, said Monday on CNBC’s “Fast Money.”
One more reason for that outsized implied move, in addition to investor reaction to Ford selling part of its investment, is Rivian’s lack of reporting history. However, while the market as a whole seems to be predicting a huge step lower, Monday’s most popular contract in Rivian was more conservative.
“The most active options that we saw today were the [May 13] weekly 24-strike puts. We saw over 31,000 of those trade for an average price of $2.14 per contract,” said Khouw, “and if you think that’s cheap, given the stock’s closing price of about $22.50 or so, one of the reasons for that is that the stock declined steadily throughout the day, and a lot of these were trading as the day progressed, so a lot of those puts are well in the money already.”
Indeed, the break-even price for those contracts is $21.86, or just about 4% lower than where the stock closed Monday’s session.
Rivian was down more than 6% in Tuesday midday trading, after earlier hitting a new all-time low.