Investors and economists are bracing for another interest rate hike this week as central bank officials gather in Washington for their July meeting. Their two-day gathering July 26 and 27 comes as the Federal Reserve works to combat soaring inflation that has left families across the country struggling to make ends meet.
Economists expect Fed officials will raise the federal funds rate by 75 basis points – bringing the rate to between 2.25% and 2.50%, which is where it was at its most recent high in summer 2019 before the coronavirus pandemic.
This will mark the fourth interest rate hike of the year as consumer prices have risen at the fastest pace in more than 40 years. Five months ago, the federal funds rate was near zero percent. At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the federal funds rate by a more aggressive 75 basis points for the first time in nearly 30 years following an increase of 25 basis points and 50 basis points at the March and May meetings, respectively.
“Some Fed officials left a 100bp hike on the table after the firm CPI report last week, but a pullback in inflation expectations seems to have persuaded the Committee to stick to its original plan,” economists from Goldman Sachs said in a note previewing the meeting. They also said financial conditions have “already tightened enough to put the economy on a sufficiently low growth trajectory.”
With consumer prices up more than 9% from a year ago, additional rate increases are expected through the end of the year. At their meeting last month, Fed officials projected the rate would increase to more than 3% by 2023. The committee will meet again in September, November and December.
Economists and investors will be keeping a close eye to see what guidance Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give about future meetings. In a note Monday, Deutsche Bank said its economics team expects hikes of 50 basis points in September and November before a 25 basis points hike in December.
Increases in the federal funds rate has led to higher borrowing costs for Americans. According to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, debts with variable rates such as credit cards and home equity lines of credit will be affected the most.
“Consumers should look to low-rate credit card balance transfer offers and doing so with urgency to insulate from further rate increases and make headway on paying down debt,” McBride said. “Ask your lender if fixing the interest rate on your outstanding home equity balance is an option.”
The Federal Open Market Committee comes as several other key pieces of economic data are scheduled to be released this week. On Thursday, the Commerce Department will release its report on GDP for the second quarter of 2022, which could further show signs that the U.S. is in a recession after the measure of economic activity declined in the first quarter of the year.
On Monday, President Biden said during an event that the U.S. is not going to be in a recession, noting the unemployment rate is near its pre-pandemic level at 3.6%. Over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who also previously served as chair of the Federal Reserve, acknowledged in an interview that the economy is slowing down but said it is not an economy in recession. Whether the U.S. is in a recession is determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Yellen argues the economy is in a period of transition.
The Commerce Department will also release its latest report on the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for June on Friday, the preferred inflation gauge used by the Federal Reserve.