Stocks may have hit bottom – here's why a market surge could come next.

Most of my friends don’t carry coins anymore, but if you happen to have a quarter in your pocket, make sure to say happy birthday. 

Phil Rosen here, and I’m celebrating the George Washington quarter’s 90th birthday from Los Angeles today. 

(I told him not to take it personally that 25 cents is worth less today than it was a year ago.) 

There’s a lot of bearish sentiment around markets these days, but today I’m breaking down why a top strategist is betting on a dramatic upswing before the end of the year. 

At the ready, markets people!

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Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)

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1. The stock market may have hit bottom already. At least according to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, who wrote in a Friday note that indexes could be gearing up for new record highs before the end of the year. 

Rather than getting bogged down by downbeat economic data, Lee took it in stride. Here’s how he put it:  

“The biggest takeaway for me on events of this week? Convincing and arguably decisive evidence the ‘bottom is in’ — the 2022 bear market is over.” 

Last week’s negative GDP print, Fed rate hike, and continued volatility in energy markets somehow didn’t pose headwinds for stocks. 

Through that stretch of events, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both made 3% gains. 

Plus, a majority of companies are reporting strong second-quarter earnings, which gives Lee hope for a bigger rally to come.

“In 2022, this means stocks could see new highs before YE. That is why we think [the] S&P 500 could be above 4,800 before year-end,” he said. 

That represents a potential upside of 16% from Friday’s close.

In other news:

US oil exports jumped last week to a record high.

George Frey/Getty Images

2. Global stocks rise early Monday, but US futures and oil slipped as investors await more company earnings reports. Here are the latest market moves.

3. On the docket: Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Activision Blizzard Inc., and Pinterest, all reporting. Plus, look out for the ISM report on business manufacturing PMI, expected later this morning. 

4. A legendary options trader who banked 70 consecutive months of six-figure profits shared his strategy. Tony Saliba lost the lion’s share of his money when he began trading at 23 years old. Now, he’s leveraging his understanding of risk exposure to rake in consistent cash. These are his four top tips.

5. Top CEOs expect oil prices to stay high as production constraints keep supplies extremely tight. Shell CEO Ben van Beurden said there’s more upside than downside when it comes to which direction oil prices are going to move. And Exxon’s CEO didn’t seem any more confident: “[T]he industry needs to increase investment and catch up to recovering demand. Unfortunately, this will take time.”

6. If the Fed pauses rate hikes in a weak economy, the dollar could crash from 20-year highs. Top economist Barry Eichengreen noted that the idea that inflation will remain in the high single digits as the Fed continues tightening is “quite daft.” Here’s what you want to know.

7. Former New York Fed president Bill Dudley said a potential surge for the stock market is “very much capped” thanks to rate rises. Specifically, Dudley said the central bank lifting rates more than expected is weighing on stocks — and a market rally could actually undermine what the central bank is trying to accomplish.

8. This 31-year-old self-made millionaire invested money in his 20s on his way to becoming financially independent. Danny Baldus-Strauss saved up to 90% of his income early on, which has allowed him to quit his six-figure corporate job and work for himself. He told Insider how he navigated the last two market downturns. 

9. Financial pros shared what comes next for the stock market now the US economy has contracted for two consecutive quarters. The new data could heavily influence what the Fed does next and how major indexes will respond. Three experts explained where investors might find the best opportunities right now.

Alibaba stock

Markets Insider

10. Alibaba tanked 10% Friday and pulled other Chinese stocks lower. The SEC flagged the online retail giant for a potential delisting. It’s the latest on a list of more than 200 companies that the US regulator has identified as violating a new rule.

Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.

Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email or tweet @philrosenn).

Edited by Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London. 

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