In an early July poll, 58% of Americans said they thought the U.S. economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May. Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The current situation is unusual, and there is little consensus among economists as to whether a recession has begun or may be coming soon. Considering the high level of public concern, it may be helpful to look at how a recession is officially determined and some current indicators that suggest strength or weakness in the U.S. economy.
Business Cycle Dating