Here’s a transcript of “The Homestretch”
>>> HI.
THIS IS JIM CRAMER AND JEFF
MARKS WITH “THE HOMESTRETCH.”
PEOPLE LOVE THIS NUMBER.
I HAVE TO TELL YOU, IT IS THE
SIX BETTER — I DIDN’T SAY
GREAT, CPI NUMBER THAT WE’VE HAD
RIGHT IN A ROW.
AND BUYERS ARE BUYING.
I THINK THIS IS PRETTY
INTERESTING.
IT SHOWS THE TENOR OF THIS
MARKET.
THIS NUMBER WAS SOMETHING THAT
WE WERE EXPECTING.
IT WASN’T BETTER THAN EXPECTED.
AND, YET, STOCKS TOOK OFF.
SO WHAT’S YOUR TAKE AWAY?
>> WELL, YEAH, I THINK
EXPECTATIONS WERE DEFINITELY
BUILDING.
THAT WAS GOING TO BE A GOOD
NUMBER.
WE GOT IT.
THE GOOD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS.
I WOULD SAY IN TERMS OF
INFLATION, IT IS INTERESTING TO
ME THAT, OF COURSE, YOU KNOW,
FED PRESIDENT IS ON THE TAPE
THIS AFTERNOON SAYING, ALL
RIGHT.
WE NEED TO GET ABOVE 5% AS SOON
AS POSSIBLE.
THE MARKET IS WORKING THROUGH
IT.
>> THAT IS IMPORTANT.
HE IS A NONVOTER, HE IS FROM ST.
LOUIS.
WHEN I SAW THE MARKET RUN
THROUGH THAT, I SAID TO MYSELF,
WITH HE COULD BE IN A LARRY
WILLIAM KIND OF MARKET.
LARRY IS THE MARKET HISTORIAN I
KNOW WHO SAYS WE’RE IN FOR A
GOOD RUN.
PEOPLE SHOULD GET OUT OF THE
WAY.
IT’S NOT GOING TO BE LIKE THIS.
>> STICK TO THE QUALITY ANGLE.
I’M SEEING A LOT OF MEME STOCKS.
I’M SEEING A LOT OF UNPROFITABLE
COMPANIES RALLY BIG RIGHT NOW.
AND I DON’T THINK THE MOVES ARE
AS EGREGIOUS AS WHAT WE SAW IN
AUGUST WHEN WE POINTED OUT THAT
THERE WAS A LOT OF FROTH IN THE
MARKET.
BUT USUALLY WHEN I DO SEE BIG
SWINGS IN THE STOCKS, IT TENDS
TO BE AN OBVIOUS SIGN.
>> YOU KNOW, I HAVE A DIFFERENT
EMOTION ABOUT THAT.
I THINK WHAT MATTERS IS WE’RE
OVERBOUGHT.
I DON’T TRUST THE MARKET WHEN
WE’RE OVERBOUGHT.
BANKS ARE DIFFICULT TO
UNDERSTAND.
AND WE NEED TO GET RID OF SOME
OF THE FROTH OF BED, BATH &
BEYOND KIND OF THING.
I WAS HOPING THAT WOULD REVERSE
ITSELF.
BUT THE OVERALL IDEA THAT WE CAN
RALLY ON NEWS THAT IS NOT GOOD
IS SOMETHING THAT IS NEW FOR
2023.
I’LL GIVE YOU AN EXAMPLE.
WHEN WE FIRST DID OUR MORNING
MEETING, UNH WAS DOWN.
AND IN THE OLD DAYS, IN 2022,
UNH IS DOWN.
IT REVERSED.
TOMORROW IT REPORTS.
>> YES.
>> AND WHAT I’M SEEING ARE SIGNS
OF WHAT I REGARD AS BEING MORE
CONVICTION THAN PEOPLE HAD IN
2022.
>> IT CERTAINLY FEELS LIKE THE
POSSIBILITY OF A SOFT LANDING IS
MUCH — IS MORE POSSIBLE THAN
WHAT WE THOUGHT PROBABLY, YOU
KNOW, A MONTH AGO.
>> AND WE DID THE MORNING NEWS.
ENERGY WAS STRONG THEN.
VERY INTERESTING.
THE YOU HAVE TAIWAN SEMI REPORT
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT.
AND THEY HAVE NOTHING GOOD TO
SAY ABOUT SHORTING.
AND PEOPLE ARE LOOKING THROUGH
IT.
>> IT SEEMS THAT THEY’RE KIND OF
SAYING THIS RETURN TO GROWTH IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS YEAR.
WHICH, YOU KNOW, THERE IS A LOT
OF INVENTORY THAT A LOT OF THE
SEMIS NEED TO WORK THROUGH.
>> THAT IS STILL THE PROBLEM
WITH AMD.
I’M NOT SURE ABOUT AMD.
>> YEAH.
>> JUST SO LOW.
>> PCs ARE A PROBLEM.
DEFINITELY WHAT HAPPENS IN THE
DATA CENTER IS STILL UP FOR
DEBATE.
ARE THESE BIG HYPER SCALERS.
YOU KNOW, THE AMAZONS OF THE
WORLD, THE MICROSOFTS.
ARE THEY GOING TO PULL BACK ON
SPENDING TO PROTECT THEIR BOTTOM
LINES WHICH IN TURN WOULD HURT
DATA CENTER?
I STILL THINK —
>> I THINK THEY HAVE TO.
THE REASON THEY HAVE TO IS
BECAUSE IF THEY’RE CUTTING
PEOPLE FROM THE GOOGLE HEALTH
DIVISION, YOU KNOW, 200 PEOPLE,
WE’RE STILL WAITING FOR THE BIG
SHOE TO DROP.
THE BIG SHOE TO DROP IS GOOGLE
SPENDING $9.5 BILLION FROM DATA
CENTERS LAST YEAR.
THEY DON’T NEED IT.
THERE IS JUST NOT ENOUGH DEMAND.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE COMMUNICATION
SERVICES GOING STRONG.
THAT’S BEEN A STOCK WE OWN.
IT IS INTERESTING.
>> YEP.
RATES DOWN.
OIL UP BIG.
METALS RALLYING.
>> COPPER.
YOU KNOW, I REGRET NEWCORP.
BUT SOMETIMES THINGS COLLAPSE.
IT’S GOING TO BE VERY GOOD.
>> YEAH, A LOT OF STEEL.
A LOT OF DEMAND FOR STEEL AND
ALSO FOR CHINA REOPENING AS
WELL.
EVEN THOUGH WE’RE NOT TAKING ON
ANY CHINESE STEEL.
IT IS GOOD FOR THE ENTIRE
INDUSTRY.
BUT IT’S A DEFENSES ARE NOT
WORKING TODAY.
>> PEPSICO.
PEOPLE ARE SAYING THAT THE FED
HAS TO BE ALMOST DONE.
OKAY?
AND THAT’S JUST A PROCESS THAT
WE TALKED ABOUT IN THE MORNING.
AND IF THAT’S THE CASE, THEN YOU
WANT TO BE A LITTLE BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE.
BUT PEOPLE DON’T KNOW WHAT TO BE
AGGRESSIVE IN BECAUSE THEY DON’T
WANT TO BE IN SOMETHING THAT’S
ABOUT TO REPORT AND HAVE A BAD
NUMBER.
I DON’T SEE PEOPLE PILING INTO
THE BANKS EVEN THOUGH THEY WOULD
BENEFIT IN THIS SITUATION.
THEY’RE AFRAID.
SO WHAT I SAY IS CASE BY CASE.
AND WHAT PEOPLE ARE BUYING ARE,
YOU KNOW, THEY’RE BUYING BOEING,
CATERPILLAR AND SALESFORCE.
I’M STILL DOING MORE WORK, JEFF,
ON SALESFORCE.
I DON’T LIKE WHAT I’M HEARING.
I WOULD LIKE TO HEAR MORE ABOUT
HOW THEY’RE REALLY DOING.
>> INTERESTING PARTNERSHIP TODAY
ANNOUNCED WITH THEM BETWEEN
WALMART AND SALESFORCE.
>> I KNOW MARK THOUGHT THAT WAS
VERY IMPORTANT.
HE POINTED IT OUT TO ME.
THE PROBLEM IS I STILL WANT TO
GET DOWN — I WANT TO GET TO THE
POINT WHERE I’M VERY COMFORTABLE
AND SALESFORCE IS MAKING MONEY
ON EACH THING.
AND, YOU KNOW, THEY ARE GOING TO
DO $31 BILLION THIS YEAR.
SLACK AND SMALL COMPANIES,
THEY’RE 10% TO 12% OF THE WHOLE
$30 BILLION WHICH SAYS THERE IS
ORGANIC GROWTH.
>> OKAY.
>> OTHER ONES?
WE FINALLY, YOU KNOW, I TOLD YOU
THIS IS THE BIG YEAR.
>> BIG MOVE WE’RE SEEING THERE.
AS WELL AS KOTERA.
HE WAS ON.
>> CONVINCED A LOT OF PEOPLE
THAT THE ISSUES ARE TAKEN CARE
OF.
>> AT THE SAME TIME, WE DID
TRIM — WE TEASED THIS A LITTLE
BIT ON “THE MORNING MEETING.”
WE DID TRIM HALLIBURTON.
HAD SUCH A GOOD RUN.
OIL SERVICES IS SUCH A GREAT
PLACE TO BE WITHIN THE ENERGY
AND OIL COMPLEX.
AND AMD —
>> AMD, IT IS THE ONE THAT
SHOULD HAVE BEEN DOWN IF YOU
TAKE TAIWAN SEMI LITERALLY.
I DON’T KNOW.
THEY CLAIM THEY’RE MOVING ENOUGH
CHIPS FOR THE AUTOS.
MY HOME WORK SAYS THEY’RE NOT.
I DON’T KNOW HOW MUCH TO BE — I
DON’T KNOW HOW MUCH TO BE
THANKFUL ABOUT TAIWAN SEMI.
>> THE NEW CEO IS GOOD.
>> THEY’RE PAYING HER.
THAT PAY BACK IS RIDICULOUS.
COSTCO, I NEVER LIKE TO SEE
COSTCO DOWN.
I DON’T.
I DON’T THINK IT’S — I THINK
IT’S A — I DON’T THINK IT
MATTERS.
NOTHING THERE.
SPECIFIC A LITTLE PROFIT TAKING.
>> SAME WITH ESTEE LAUDER.
WE DID TRIM OUR POSITION.
>> THAT WAS SMART.
>> YEAH.
>> AND THEN, YOU KNOW, PROCTOR
IS KIND OF THE DEFINITION OF
WHAT IS NOT GOING TO WORK AT
THIS VERY MOMENT.
ONE THING I WANT TO TALK ABOUT,
JIM, I LEARNED WHEN I WAS AT
GOLDMAN SACHS, IF YOU REALLY
THINK THAT EVERY SINGLE HORSE IS
GOING TO WIN THE RACE, THAT’S
RIDICULOUS.
THERE’S GOING TO BE ALL TIMES WE
HEAR A LOT OF PEOPLE COME ON AIR
AND THEY’LL SAY WELL SOMETHING’S
WRONG WITH THIS.
SOMETHING’S WRONG WITH THAT.
NO, WE HAVE A ROTATION.
IT’S A VICIOUS ROTATION.
THERE IS NOTHING WRONG WITH
PEPSI.
HEADWINDS ARE GOING TO TAIL
WINDS.
IT CAN’T GO UP EVERY DAY.
>> YOU COULD USE THE SAME THING
WITH BASEBALL.
SOMETIMES THE TWO HITTER GOES TO
A SLUMP.
SOMETIMES THE EIGHT HITTER.
BUT THE COLLECTIVE DIVERSIFIED
PORTFOLIO IS WHAT YOU NEED TO
SCORE RUNS AND WIN GAMES.
>> I FIND AND I KNOW ALL OF OUR
CLUB MEMBERS ARE SPORTS FANS.
BUT THERE ARE ASPECTS OF SPORTS
THAT, ARE LET’S JUST SAY,
APPLICABLE.
AND, YOU KNOW, JOE DIMAGGIO DID
NOT — HE DID IN THE 57th GAME
AND THAT WAS IT.
NOW, WE HAVE GOT BIG EARNINGS
TOMORROW.
I DON’T WANT ANYONE TO TAKE ANY
ACTION UNTIL WE WRITE ABOUT IT.
>> RIGHT.
>> I THINK IT IS MORE THAN
LIKELY THAT WHAT PEOPLE SAY IS
WRONG ABOUT THE BANKS.
UNITED HEALTH WILL BE AFFECTED
AND HUMANA WHICH IS PART OF THIS
ROTATION.
I WANT PEOPLE TO REMEMBER YOU
SHOULD BUY HUMANA, NOT SELLING
IT.
THAT WAS A GREAT NUMBER.
IT GOT CAUGHT RIGHT IN THE
ROTATION.
WHEN THE ROTATION ENDS, PEOPLE
COME RIGHT BACK TO THAT.
AND YOU DID CLOSE US WE
COLLECTED AN AFTER TAX CHARGE
FOR JUST —
>> WELLS FARGO IS A CONFERENCE
CALL STOCK.
THAT CALL DOESN’T START UNTIL
12:00 NOON EASTERN.
YOU HAVE TO — IF YOU’RE LOOKING
TO BUY OR EVEN SELL AHEAD OF
THAT, OKAY, IT’S A CONFERENCE
CALL.
YOU HAVE TO HEAR WHAT THE CEO
HAS TO SAY WITH THE CFO.
ESPECIALLY WHAT THEY’RE THINKING
ABOUT 2023.
>> ABSOLUTELY.
NOW JUST ONCE AGAIN, I WANT TO
MAKE A POINT THAT NETFLIX THAT
LARRY WILLIAMS THAT COULD WORK.
THAT IS REFLECTED IN TODAY’S
ACTION.
THE OTHER THING I SEE, I GOT TO
TELL YOU, JEFF, OIL SEEMS TO
DIGEST WHAT CARLY WATER SAID.
>> IT DID.
>> IT DID GET DOWN.
BOUNCES.
NOW IT GOES TO $90.
SO WE’LL HOLD ON TO THOSE.
WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF THE
HALLIBURTON.
WE DID THAT BECAUSE WE ALWAYS
WANT DISCIPLINES AND CONVICTION.
HOWEVER, I THINK THE NEXT TOP
HAS TO BE — I DON’T WANT TO SAY
MUCH HIGHER, BUT NO MORE SLOW
BOILS.
THE I THINK IT CAN GO HIGHER.
ANYWAY, I KNOW THAT SOMETIMES IN
ON “THE HOMESTRETCH” WE RAMBLE A
BIT.
BUT THAT’S WHAT HAPPENS.
I THINK THAT THERE SAY
PROPENSITY TO BELIEVE THAT
EVERYTHING SOUNDS PERFECT.
THE REASON IS BECAUSE A LOT OF
TIMES PEOPLE ARE READING.
I DON’T READ.
JEFF DOESN’T READ.
WE THINK.
YOU GOT OUR INFORMATION.
WE HOPE TO COME BACK TOMORROW
FOR “THE MORNING MEETING” AND
THEN FOR “THE HOMESTRETCH.”
THANK YOU.