CHONGQING, CHINA – AUGUST 18: In this photo illustration, a smartphone displays the logo of Zoom Video Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: ZM), an American communications technology company best known for its video conferencing platform, in front of a screen showing the company’s latest stock market chart on August 18, 2025 in Chongqing, China. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)
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Zoom Communications (NASDAQ: ZM) is slated to report its Q2 results on Thursday, August 21, 2025. Over the last five years, Zoom’s stock posted a negative one-day move after earnings 74% of the time. Those negative moves had a median of -7.7% and reached a maximum of -16.7%.
For event-driven traders, this history is informative, though the actual reaction will hinge on how results stack up against consensus and broader expectations. Two approaches that may leverage this dataset are:
- Pre-Earnings Strategy: Weigh the historical odds of positive vs. negative reactions and consider a position before the release.
- Post-Earnings Strategy: Evaluate how the immediate reaction relates to subsequent medium-term performance, then position after the print.
Current consensus forecasts call for earnings per share of $1.38 on revenue of $1.2 billion for the quarter, versus $1.39 EPS on $1.16 billion in revenue in the same quarter last year.
From a fundamentals perspective, Zoom’s market capitalization stands at $22 billion. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $4.7 billion in revenue, delivered operating profit of $852 million, and recorded net income of $1.0 billion. Also, see Buy or Sell Zoom Stock.
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Zoom Communications’ Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
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Key notes on one-day (1D) post-earnings moves:
- There are 19 observations over the past five years, with 5 positive and 14 negative one-day (1D) returns — i.e., positive 1D returns occurred roughly 26% of the time.
- That share rises to 27% when focusing on the last 3 years.
- Median of the 5 positive returns = 8.0%, and median of the 14 negative returns = -7.7%.
Additional detail on 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) post-earnings returns, plus summary statistics, appears in the table below.
ZM 1D, 5D, and 21D Post Earnings Return
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Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively lower-risk tactic (though not useful if correlations are weak) is to identify the strongest link between short- and medium-term returns after earnings, then trade accordingly. For example, if 1D and 5D are most correlated, a positive 1D reaction could support a short-term “long” stance for the next 5 days. Here is correlation data based on both a 5-year window and a more recent 3-year window. Also, see – Buy or Fear ZM Stock?
ZM Correlation Between 1D, 5D, and 21D Historical Returns
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Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Peer performance can sometimes shape post-earnings reactions, with pricing-in even occurring ahead of the release. Below is historical context comparing Zoom Communications’ post-earnings 1D returns with those of peers that reported shortly before Zoom.
ZM Correlation With Peer Earnings
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