Hedera (HBAR) has experienced a sharp decline over the past month, losing nearly 24% of its value and holding near $0.17. Despite the persistent downtrend, technical signals and ongoing money inflows suggest that the token may be preparing for a bullish reversal—if it can overcome a critical resistance level.
Over the past week, HBAR has fallen approximately 5%, reflecting the continued uncertainty in the broader crypto market. While traders have tried to stabilize the price following the Black Friday crash, the token remains in a consolidation phase, waiting for momentum to shift in favor of buyers.
Technical Indicators Signal a Potential Trend Change
One of the most telling signs of a possible reversal comes from the Relative Strength Index (RSI). The RSI tracks the speed and strength of price movements and is widely used to identify shifts in momentum. Between June 22 and October 8, HBAR formed a lower price low while the RSI created a higher low, a classic bullish divergence.
“This pattern indicates that selling pressure may be weakening, and a trend reversal could be forming,” said market analyst Ananda Banerjee. “Traders should watch closely to see if the reversal gains confirmation through price action.”
Supporting the RSI signals is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which measures money inflows and outflows from large holders. Currently, the CMF remains positive at 0.18, suggesting that capital is still moving into HBAR even amid the recent price declines. Analysts note that this steady inflow demonstrates sustained interest from larger wallets, which could support a bullish shift if momentum continues.
Resistance at $0.19: The Key Level
Despite encouraging technical signals, HBAR faces a major hurdle. The price has repeatedly failed to move above $0.19, which has acted as a strong resistance level since October 11. For the bullish reversal to play out, HBAR would need to climb roughly 9% to close above this level on the daily timeframe.
Breaking above $0.19 would indicate that buyers are absorbing sell pressure and could pave the way for further gains. If successful, the next resistance zones are expected near $0.23 and $0.25, marking previous swing highs. Conversely, failure to clear this level could trap HBAR in a range-bound pattern, leaving it vulnerable to declines back toward $0.16 or even $0.15.
Large Wallet Activity Supports the Upside
Data from TradingView shows that major HBAR holders continue to accumulate, reflecting confidence in the token’s medium- to long-term potential. Analysts highlight that sustained buying by large wallets can provide stability during periods of price weakness, helping the token build a base for potential upward moves.
However, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator suggests that if values drop below 0.14, money inflows may slow, reducing support for the price. Market participants are therefore watching both price action and CMF levels closely to gauge whether a reversal is likely to hold.
Short-Term Outlook and Strategy
HBAR’s immediate support zone lies near $0.16, which has held through recent declines. The near-term trajectory will depend on whether buyers can push the price above $0.19. Momentum alone may not be enough; the token requires a confirmed breakout to signal a sustainable trend change.
Analysts caution that, in the absence of this breakout, any bounce may remain short-lived. Traders and investors are advised to monitor both technical indicators and broader market trends, including altcoin performance and overall crypto sentiment, to better assess potential opportunities and risks.
Looking Ahead
While HBAR’s price action over the past month has been disappointing, technical indicators suggest a potential turning point. If the token manages a 9% gain above $0.19, it could mark the beginning of a new bullish phase. Until then, HBAR remains in a cautious zone where market participants must weigh momentum against resistance and broader market pressures.
As crypto markets continue to recover from recent turbulence, Hedera’s ability to sustain inflows and break key resistance levels will determine whether the token can regain its footing and resume upward momentum.
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