It begins quietly, fields that look green but are under stress, markets that seem stable but are tightening, and weather patterns that no longer follow familiar rhythms.Across India, the early months of 2026 are offering subtle warnings of a deeper crisis building beneath the surface. From scorching heat sweeping across plains to shifting global trade dynamics and distant wars reshaping supply lines, the country’s food system is being pulled in multiple directions at once.advertisementRead Full StoryWhat makes this year different is not just the presence of risk, but the convergence of four powerful forces: rising tariffs, the ongoing US-Iran war, extreme heat, and the lingering influence of El Nino that is projected to turn into a super El Nino last seen several decades ago.
Agartala: A young boy catches fish in a paddy field following heavy rainfall, on the outskirts of Agartala, Tripura, Thursday, April 30, 2026. (PTI Photo)
Together, they are testing the resilience of India’s agriculture and raising urgent questions about how prepared the country is for what lies ahead.TARIFFS: WHEN PROTECTION TRIGGERS PRESSUREGlobal trade is becoming increasingly fragmented as countries turn inward to shield their populations from rising food prices.Export restrictions, higher tariffs, and tighter controls on agricultural commodities are becoming common. While these measures are designed to protect domestic markets, they often have unintended consequences, reducing global supply and pushing prices even higher.India and the US are moving toward a broader trade deal, but a full FTA is still under negotiation after tariff tensions in 2025 pushed both sides to reset ties. While some duties have eased under an interim framework, agriculture remains the most sensitive issue.India has protected key sectors like dairy, rice and wheat, resisting US pressure for wider market access. At the same time, it has secured better access for its exports such as spices, mangoes and processed food.
Chandigarh: A farmer plucks tomatoes during the harvest season, at a field, outskirts of Chandigarh, Wednesday, April 29, 2026. (PTI Photo/Shiva Sharma)
The deal reflects a cautious approach, expanding trade opportunities while safeguarding domestic food security and shielding farmers from global competition.advertisementFor India, navigating this environment is particularly tricky. As both a major producer and occasional exporter, the country must balance domestic availability with global commitments.Agricultural economist Devinder Sharma warned that food security must remain non-negotiable. “India is at a very precarious position now, we have to ensure domestic food security. Trade should not be allowed to infringe on agriculture by any standards,” he said.His caution reflects a broader concern: in a world of tightening trade barriers, relying on global markets becomes increasingly risky.Any misstep in policy, either excessive exports or delayed restrictions, could quickly translate into domestic shortages or price spikes.WAR: A DISTANT CONFLICT, A DIRECT IMPACTThousands of kilometres away, the Russia-Ukraine war continues to ripple through global food systems. Both nations are key suppliers of wheat, corn and sunflower oil, and disruptions in their exports have tightened international markets.Shipping routes have become riskier, insurance costs have risen, and fertiliser supplies have been strained.Compounding this is the fallout from the US-Iran conflict, which has disrupted energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil and gas. The blockade has pushed up fuel prices and threatened gas supplies, directly impacting India’s energy security.advertisementRising fuel costs translate into higher transportation, irrigation and fertiliser expenses, amplifying stress across the agricultural sector.
The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. (Photo: Reuters)
For India, the impact is now threefold. Higher global prices are raising the cost of fertilisers and inputs; tighter grain supplies are increasing pressure on domestic reserves; and volatile energy markets are inflating the cost of food production and distribution.HEAT: THE MOST IMMEDIATE THREATIf tariffs and war are external pressures, heat is the crisis unfolding within India’s borders. This year has already seen extreme temperatures sweeping across large parts of the country, with several cities touching or exceeding 45°C.In India, 95 cities out of 100 were the hottest across the world in April. “We are indiscriminately cutting down trees, forest cover is going down,” Sharma noted, linking rising temperatures to environmental degradation.The consequences for agriculture are severe. Heat stress during key growth phases can sharply reduce yields, particularly for crops like wheat.
Thiruvananthapuram: A farmer dries rice grain after harvesting on a summer morning, in Thiruvananthapuram, Tuesday, April 21, 2026. (PTI Photo)
advertisementBeyond crops, heat is also straining water resources, increasing evaporation, and raising the risk of drought-like conditions even before the monsoon arrives. For farmers, this means higher uncertainty, rising costs, and shrinking margins.EL NINO: THE INVISIBLE DISRUPTORHovering over all these challenges is El Nino, a climate phenomenon known for disrupting rainfall patterns across the globe. In India, its effects are often felt through delayed monsoons, uneven rainfall distribution, and prolonged dry spells.This year, the timing could not be worse. With heatwaves already intensifying, the added uncertainty of El Nino threatens the upcoming paddy season, a cornerstone of India’s food supply.
India is looking at rising extreme weather events. (Photo: PTI)
The impact on paddy production is going to be phenomenal this year. Climate scientists have warned that if India is careless, it will devastate India’s food security. Even if rainfall eventually arrives, early-season stress could reduce yields significantly.advertisement”It is very certain that the ensuing El Nino event could lead to more and more severe heatwaves in the 2027 pre-monsoon season. We should be well prepared. Normally, we should expect stronger heatwaves after the peak of the El Nino event, which is due by Oct-Dec 2026,” Dr Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, Vice Chancellor, Atria University, told IndiaToday.in.A SYSTEM UNDER STRAINWhat makes 2026 particularly concerning is the way these four forces interact. Climate shocks reduce production, wars disrupt supply chains, tariffs restrict trade, and heat amplifies losses. Each factor feeds into the other, creating a fragile system with limited room for error.For India, the challenge is no longer about managing one risk at a time. It is about navigating a world where multiple crises unfold simultaneously.In a year shaped by tariffs, war, heat and El Nio, the question is no longer whether disruptions will occur, but how well India is prepared to withstand them.- EndsPublished By: Sibu Kumar TripathiPublished On: May 2, 2026 09:30 ISTTune InMust Watch