Nothing can stop this bull market. Well, almost. The S & P 500 scaled to a fresh record on Thursday, topping 7,800 for the first time on an intraday basis. The benchmark also posted an all-time closing high of 7,798.99. Momentum this week has been led by energy, with the sector up nearly 6% week to date through Thursday’s close. Healthcare and financials have also outperformed this week, rising more than 1% each. Seemingly, everything appears to be going in the stock market’s favor. Yet, Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett thinks surging national debt and higher bond yields could derail the strong run for equities. The U.S. budget deficit in July reached its highest monthly level in more than five years due in part to surging Medicare costs. Last month’s shortfall totaled $432.3 billion . .SPX YTD bar SPX year to date BofA’s Harnett also said the U.S. “national debt set to surpass $40tn in coming days, on course for $50tn by ’29.” The country’s sky-high debt levels are even more worrying as Treasury yields continue to rise. The 30-year Treasury bond yield hovered around 5.24% on Friday, near levels not seen in more than decade. Yields don’t show any signs of relenting, especially as the ongoing war in the Middle East raises worry about whether energy prices will stay elevated. On Thursday, an auction of 30-year bonds ended with the highest yield since 2001. To be sure, Hartnett noted that “asset allocation rules of the road in 2020s remain ABB (Anything but Bonds), ABC (Anywhere but China), ABD (Anything but the US Dollar), AI (all-in on AI), all bolstered in ’26 by conviction policymakers see nominal GDP boom as solution to indebtedness and view stock market as too big to fail…why Wall St trades with no fear.” But, if yields and the national debt continue to rise, they could thwart the stock market’s strong run.
