PARIS – More than 84% of Mexico’s exports head to the United States. But with the trade war reignited by Donald Trump, the country could soon be tempted to look across the Atlantic for new opportunities in the European Union.
President Emmanuel Macron will make a brief stop in Mexico on Friday, a visit the Élysée says will reaffirm the importance of “multilateralism,” while also seeking to deepen economic ties.
But behind the diplomatic language lies a more pragmatic motive: helping Mexico diversify its trade relations at a moment of renewed tension with its northern neighbour.
According to US media reports, Washington is considering conducting military operations inside Mexico to combat drug cartels. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has firmly rejected these reports in recent days.
Yet her room for manoeuvre with President Donald Trump is limited: more than four-fifths of Mexican exports are bound for the US, and since 1 November, Washington has imposed new tariffs of 25% on trucks and 10% on buses made in Mexico.
According to Brenda Estefan, professor of geopolitics at Mexico’s IPADE Business School, the Mexican authorities urgently need to find new trading partners.
“Mexico cannot afford to be left alone in a dark room with Trump,” she said.
Turning to Europe
Trade in goods between the European Union and Mexico reached €82 billion in 2024 – a fraction of the €662 billion exchanged with the United States. Yet the potential for growth is real. Brussels is expected to ratify a modernised EU-Mexico trade agreement soon, finalised earlier this year.
The updated deal will eliminate many tariffs on EU food and agricultural exports and add a chapter on sustainable trade, introducing binding provisions on labour rights, environmental protection, climate action and responsible business practices.
According to international trade consultant Jorge Molina, the revised deal is “far better” than the original agreement, which has been in force since 2000. However, Mexico’s heavy economic dependence on its northern neighbour remains a significant obstacle.
“The industrialised North has never imagined exporting anywhere but the United States – and the Mexican state has done little to open other doors,” he said.
Managing Trump
Since taking office a year ago, Mexican President Sheinbaum has focused on avoiding the tariffs Trump threatens to impose. In return, she has agreed to tighten border security to curb migration and to extradite several dozen drug traffickers to the US.
But Mexico’s energy is now consumed by the looming renegotiation of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is due for review in 2026. Washington has hinted that it could tear up the current deal and replace it with separate bilateral arrangements.
“Trump’s goal is to bring supply chains back from Mexico to American soil,” said David Recondo, a researcher at Sciences Po’s Centre for International Studies (CERI).
Such a move could prove devastating: Mexican exports to the US have already dropped by 6% in the first eight months of 2025, according to Molina.
“If a solid deal on the USMCA isn’t reached, Mexican companies will have no choice but to start looking to Europe,” he said.
(cm, cs)