January 28, 2026 07:43 AM EST
On the Fed’s Policy Committee, Dissenters Pay a Price
FROM 19 minutes ago
If anyone on the Federal Reserve’s policy committee votes against the majority at the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday, they may regret it down the line.
That’s according to a research paper published last week by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The team of researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, the Fed, the NBER, and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology found that members who vote against the majority are less likely to get their way at subsequent meetings.
A majority of Fed officials voted to lower the rate by a quarter-point at its three most recent meetings, though, unusually, there were dissenting votes at all of them. Members who wanted to keep rates even and those who wanted steeper cuts voted against the action.
Victor J. Blue / Bloomberg via Getty Images
Given such varying viewpoints, researchers wondered why dissenting votes aren’t cast more often—after all, most FOMC votes are unanimous.
To find out, researchers pored over transcripts of Fed meetings and voting records. The chair was highly influential in steering the majority opinion and establishing unanimity, the researchers found. They also found that every time a member went against that consensus, their preferred interest rate policy was about one-third less likely to be adopted at a future meeting. In other words, they may be being punished for breaking the committee’s consensus.
The researchers considered another possible interpretation: “FOMC members only dissent when they realize the battle is lost and their viewpoint will not carry the day in future meetings,” they wrote.
Read the full article here.
January 28, 2026 07:12 AM EST
We’re All Worried About the Economy’s Future—But Some of Us Are Still Spending Anyway
FROM 50 minutes ago
Consumer confidence plunged in January, but fears about the future aren’t stopping some people from spending.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index is hitting its lowest levels since 2014 on Tuesday. It comes after another widely followed sentiment survey last week showed consumers remained in a poor mood in January, with a reading 20% below the same time a year ago. Consumers say they’re worried about jobs, inflation, tariffs, groceries and health insurance.
Eilon Paz / Bloomberg via Getty Images
But with spending continuing at a robust pace, and data showing continued economic expansion, are consumers saying one thing and doing another?
“It is always worth taking consumer confidence readings in context and remembering that vibes are not always fully reflected in spending,” wrote Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein. “That said, it still bears noting that consumers felt more confident at the height of the pandemic than they do now.”
Read the full article here.
January 28, 2026 06:47 AM EST
Stock Futures Point Higher Ahead of Fed Decision on Interest Rates, Big Tech Earnings
FROM 1 hr 15 min ago
Futures contracts connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were fractionally higher.
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S&P 500 futures pointed up 0.4%.
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Nasdaq 100 futures were 0.9% higher.
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