(Bloomberg) — Nearly 200 nations gather this week for COP29, the annual United Nations climate summit, in the latest international push to tame global warming. Copper bulls converge on Shanghai for one of the world’s biggest gatherings for the industrial metal. And in the US, Donald Trump’s election victory casts a spotlight on the potential impacts to oil markets.
Here are five notable charts to consider in global commodity markets as the week gets underway.
Climate
COP29 kicks off Monday, with delegates from around the world converging on Azerbaijan for at least 12 days of climate talks. This edition’s primary objective is setting a new goal on climate finance that replaces an existing target for rich nations to provide $100 billion yearly to poor countries to back the green transition and protect those economies from extreme weather. COP29 carries added uncertainty from the US — the world’s second-biggest greenhouse gas polluter — following last week’s election win by Trump, who campaigned on a promise to exit the landmark 2015 Paris agreement that imposed limits on global warming.
Copper
China’s commodities trading hub of Shanghai this week hosts one of the world’s biggest annual gatherings of the copper industry. As well as gauging what’s next for demand in the world’s biggest metals market, executives at Asia Copper Week face tough annual supply negotiations. Smelters in China have expanded rapidly in recent years, putting them in fierce competition for tight supplies of ore from major miners such as Freeport McMoRan Inc. or Antofagasta Plc. Copper futures fell Monday on the London Metal Exchange.
Oil
Oil prices have struggled for direction since Trump’s victory as traders debate how his presidency will affect the market. A key variable will be whether his potential “Drill, baby, drill” approach to domestic production will actually result in companies cranking up output, which is already at record levels under President Joe Biden’s administration. Most market watchers are projecting a surplus next year, and companies may be hesitant to eat into their precious drilling inventory unless prices rebound strongly. Oil prices extended their decline on Monday.
Weather
The lack of clear climate signals across the Pacific has meteorologists and traders waiting for La Niña to make its move and influence weather around the world in the coming months. La Niña, which is when then ocean cools, can mean winter chills for Japan, western Canada and the northern US, while bringing drought across crop-growing regions of South America and heavy rain across Indonesia and northern Australia. So far, though, La Niña has been late, and while forecasters are still expecting it, they anticipate the impacts will be weak.
Lumber
The southern US is poised to end Canada’s long-held dominance over the North American lumber industry as decades of trade restrictions take a toll. The US region is set to surpass Canada for softwood lumber capacity, according to commodity pricing agency Fastmarkets. It’s a remarkable turnabout that signals how much a key Canadian resource sector has diminished due to years of US import duties and other challenges including wildfires, land-use regulation and insect infestation.
–With assistance from Martin Ritchie, Doug Alexander, Ilena Peng and Thomas Seal.
(Adds Monday market moves for copper and oil from fourth paragraph.)
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