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Shares of Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) are up about $6.10 a share at $143.30, driven by its role in defense and artificial intelligence, particularly following increased geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Investors are rotating into defense stocks like Palantir, which is seen as critical for military intelligence and AI-driven warfare.
With a new conflict with Iran and gushing oil prices, the major indices are swimming in red.
However, they are fighting to come back.
Earlier, the S&P 500 was down 51 points. It’s now down 22. The Dow was down 422 points, and is now just down 166. The NASDAQ was down 138 and is now down about 81. Oil is up $5.10 a barrel. Gold is up about $40 to $5,317. The Volatility Index is up $1.54. It’ll be interesting to see if markets can shrug off the conflict, even with the possibility of $100 oil.
Oil could gush to $100
Oil, for example, could soar to $100 barrel with Strait of Hormuz traffic halted.
Remember, the Strait is a critical transit route for global oil, with about 13 million barrels of oil per day moving through that region. By disrupting that flow, we run a risk of $100 oil.
If Iran were to close the Strait, the situation could get far worse. In fact, “This could present a scenario three times the severity of the Arab oil embargo and Iranian revolution in the 1970s, and drive oil prices into the triple digits, while LNG prices retest the record highs of 2022,” added Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee, as quoted by CNBC.
Eventually, we can buy the dip
As noted by CNBC, Wells Fargo found that since World War II, the S&P 500 has seen a median gain of 0.4% two weeks after a geopolitical event. But nearer term, in the one-, three-, and seven-day periods following an event, the benchmark has historically seen a loss on a median basis.”
JPMorgan added, “We are Tactically Cautious as we prepare for what may be a multi-week period of elevated uncertainty. We would look for a 1-2 week decline in risk assets, creating a buy-the-dip opportunity as the market looks through the initial pullback,” as quoted by CNBC.
In addition, according to data going back to 1980, the S&P 500 on average is unchanged after such an event. In addition, studies show that stocks historically recover about a month after a conflict begins.
Again, markets are fighting to come back strong today.
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