JP Morgan even lowered its price target for Tesla shares to just $120 by the end of Q1
March 17, 2025 at 13:07
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- JP Morgan analysts said that Tesla could end Q1 with just 355,000 deliveries globally.
- This would represent an 8% over-year-over decline from the first quarter of 2024.
- The same analysts also suspect Tesla’s share price could plummet to just $120.
Tesla’s rough patch isn’t showing signs of letting up anytime soon, and analysts aren’t optimistic it will turn around soon, either. The latest blow? JP Morgan suggests that Elon Musk’s ongoing ties to the Trump administration could continue dragging Tesla down, possibly hammering both its share price and its sales figures through the first quarter.
Last week, JP Morgan trimmed its forecast for Tesla’s first-quarter deliveries from an already modest 444,000 units to just 355,000 units. That’s not just below JP Morgan’s prior estimates, it’s also well short of the broader consensus expectation of 430,000 units. If those numbers hold, it would mark an 8% year-over-year decline compared to the first quarter of 2024.
Read: Tesla Plans Smaller Model Y That’s 20% Cheaper To Produce
While estimating delivery figures from a carmaker like Tesla can be difficult, things are trending downward for the EV brand. Through January and February, sales cratered by 44.4% in Norway and an even steeper 70.6% in Germany. Similar declines have been reported in Australia and China, compounding the pressure.
In the same investor note, JP Morgan slashed its price target for Tesla shares to a mere $120, representing more than a 50% drop from the $249 mark it was trading at last week. Tesla’s market cap has already plummeted roughly 49% since December, free-falling from a peak value of $1.54 trillion to under $800 billion, Business Insider notes.
JP Morgan auto analyst Ryan Brinkman put it plainly in a research note published Wednesday, writing, “We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry, in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly,” according to Fortune, which reviewed the note.
Musk’s Political Ties Stir Investor Worries
JP Morgan says the sudden drop in Tesla’s value is incomparable with any other moment in automotive history, noting that Musk’s involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency is weighing heavily on perceptions of the Tesla brand.
“Mr. Musk’s work with the Department of Government Efficiency has proven controversial domestically, and while as many members of the political right may be pleased as those on the left are displeased, the effect on Tesla sales seems nevertheless negative,” the analysts said.
Growing discontent for Tesla is not only visible through declining sales, but also by the recent protests at company showrooms, and an uptick in vandalism on Tesla vehicles and Supercharger stations not just in the US, but also internationally.
