Dow Jones, S&P500 and the NASDAQ Composite indices witnessed a strong rise last week, recovering almost all the loss made in the previous two weeks. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 were up 3.18 and 3.73 per cent respectively. The NASDAQ Composite on the other hand surged 4.91 per cent last week.
This rise has dimmed the danger of the bearish trend reversal that we had cautioned about last week. A strong follow-through rise this week will bring back the earlier bullishness into the picture again
Dow Jones (47,716.42)
The bias is positive. The Dow Jones can rise to 48,500 again. A break above it can take the index up to 49,500 and even 50,000 in the coming weeks.
From a long-term perspective, the region around 50,000 is a strong resistance which can halt the rally. As such we can expect the Dow Jones to reverse lower from around 50,000 and fall back to 48,500.
Supports are now at 47,300, 47,000 and 46,700. A fall below 46,700 is needed to negate the aforementioned rise to 49,500-50,000. Only then the danger of a fall to 45,500-45,000 will come into the picture.
S&P 500 (6,849.08)
The rise and close above 6,800 is a positive. Near-term supports are at 6,800 and 6,750. A rise to 6,900 can be seen now. If the index manages to rise past 6,900, then 7,000-7,100 and even 7,200 can be seen on the upside.
Crucial supports are at 6,650-6,600 and 6,500. A fall below 6,600 will bring in the danger of a trend reversal again. A subsequent break below 6,500 will confirm the same.
The region between 7,100 and 7,200 is a strong resistance zone. We can expect the current rally to halt there. There is a good chance the S&P 500 index reverses lower from this 7,100-7,200 region and falls to 6,900-6,800.
NASDAQ Composite (23,365.69)
The 4.9 per cent surge last week has eased the downside pressure but has not negated the danger of a trend reversal completely. Immediate resistance is around 23,500. NASDAQ Composite index has to breach 23,500 in order to strengthen the bullish. Only then the upside will open up for a rise to 24,800-25,000 and higher.
Supports are at 23,200 and 22,900. Failure to break above 23,500 from here will keep the danger alive of the index declining below 22,900. If that happens, a fall to 22,200-22,000 can be seen.
Dollar Outlook
The dollar index (99.48) has failed to sustain above 100 and has come down last week. Indeed, it has declined below its support at 99.65 contrary to our expectation. As long as the index remains below 100, the bias will remain negative. A fall to 99 or even 98.80-98.60 is possible in the short term.
A sustained rise above 100 is needed to regain the bullishness. Only then the rise to 100.80-101 that we had expected last week will come back into the picture.
The dollar index has to sustain above 98.60 to keep the bullish bias alive. A fall below this support will be bearish for a fall to 97. That in turn will negate the bullish view of seeing a rise to 101.
Treasury Yields
The US 10Yr Treasury Yield (4.02 per cent) hovered between 3.95 and 4.05 per cent almost all through the week. Key resistance is around 4.05 per cent. The yield has to rise past this hurdle to clear the way for a rise to 4.15-4.2 per cent again.
Failure to rise above 4.05 per cent can keep the yield under pressure. In that case, a fall to 3.9-3.85 per cent is still possible.
From a big picture, the region around 3.85 per cent is a strong support. A fall below 3.85 per cent is less likely. As such, we can expect the US 10Yr Treasury Yield to rise back above 4 per cent after this fall to 3.85 per cent.
Published on November 29, 2025