U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday as investors assessed October consumer inflation data that is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on pace for another rate cut next month. The consumer price index increased 0.2% for the fourth straight month, in line with the expectations of economists polled by Reuters. In the 12 months through October, the CPI advanced 2.6%, also matching forecasts, after rising 2.4% in September.
Treasury yields fell after the news, but rebounded to weigh on equities. The benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield rose 1.6 basis points to 4.449% after sliding as low as 4.361% after the CPI report. The continued economic resilience and the perception that the Fed may not need to cut rates as much as previously anticipated have led to a spike in yields, per some analysts, as quoted on Reuters.
There’s a lot of uncertainty though around that view. Expectations for a 25-bps cut at the Fed’s December meeting were at 82.8%, up from 58.7% on Tuesday, 69.9% a week ago and 84.4% a month ago, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.
“Overall, it was a remarkable consensus print that leaves a December cut as the most likely outcome,” wrote Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy on the BMO Capital Markets Fixed Income Strategy team, as quoted on CNBC.
Investors should note that bond yields jumped last week after President-elect Donald Trump’s victory, with expectations that his pro-business policies and tax cuts could boost economic growth. Economists expected these policies to result in higher inflation, which in turn would keep the Fed from being too dovish.
Comments from several Fed officials on Wednesday indicated that after fears of the labor market cooling too fast earlier this year, the focus has now been shifted to inflation risks post-election. The Fed members might be reconsidering how fast and far they can cut rates.
If it were a pre-election phase, the October inflation print world have probably boosted the growth stocks (the ones that fare better in a low-rate environment). However, with the Trump trade gaining momentum, bond yields may be on the higher side, at least until we get a clearer view of the new fiscal policies.
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