OU Romanoff Center for Russian studies co-director on war in Ukraine

War in Ukraine reaches one year mark

SINCE RUSSIA INVADED UKRAINE. THOUSANDS HAVE DIED AND MILLIONS OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN FORCED TO LEAVE THEIR HOMES. JOINING US NOW LIVE WITH THE LATEST UPDATES IS MELISSA STOCKDALE, CO-DIRECTOR OF USE NEW ROMANOFF CENTER FOR RUSSIAN STUDIES. MELISSA, GOOD MORNING AND THANKS FOR JOINING US. GOOD MORNING. MY PLEASURE. SO WE HAVE A LOT TO GET TO HERE. BUT FIRST, LET’S DO A QUICK A QUICK RECAP, A BRIEF LOOK AT HOW THIS ALL STARTED AND HOW WE GOT TO WHERE WE ARE TODAY. NOBODY REALLY EXPECTED THAT PRESIDENT PUTIN WAS GOING TO INVADE UKRAINE WHEN HE DID. I MEAN, THE TROOP BUILDUP THAT WE BEGAN TO SEE WERE ALARMING. BUT IT JUST MADE NO SENSE GIVEN THAT UKRAINE WAS NOT GOING TO ROLL OVER EASILY. NOW, OBVIOUSLY, THE UKRAINIANS HAVE THOUGHT MUCH MORE EFFECTIVELY THAN ANYBODY COULD HAVE GUESSED. THEY’VE HAD REALLY EXCELLENT BACKING FROM NAITO, AND THE RUSSIAN FORCES ARE REVEALED THEMSELVES TO BE REALLY POORLY LED. THEY MADE A LOT OF FUNDAMENTAL MISTAKES. THEIR TROOPS HAD NOT BEEN PROPERLY PREPARED. AND SO AFTER THEY MADE AN INITIAL TERRITORIAL GAINS IN THE FIRST MONTH OF THE WAR THAT IS LIKE FEBRUARY TILL THE BEGINNING OF APRIL, THEY THEY GAVE AID AT ONE POINT. THEY CONTROLLED 22% OF UKRAINIAN TERRITORY, BUT THEY STALLED OUT THERE. THEY WERE TAKING HEAVY CASUALTIES. THERE WERE A LOT LOSING A LOT OF THEIR EQUIPMENT. AND THEN THE UKRAINIANS BEGAN THEIR COUNTEROFFENSIVE, PUSH THEM BACK. SO RUSSIA STILL CONTROLS, AS OF TODAY, ABOUT 70% OF UKRAINIAN TERRITORY, BUT THEY HAVE LOST AN ESTIMATED 200,000 MEN AND KILLED AND WOUNDED. THEY ALSO, AS WE KNOW, HAVE HAD MORE THAN A MILLION RUSSIAN CITIZENS FLEE THE COUNTRY, EITHER BECAUSE THEY OPPOSE THE WAR, BECAUSE THEY WERE YOUNG MEN WHO WERE UNWILLING TO BE CONSCRIPTED INTO THIS OR UKRAINE’S TAKEN SOME REALLY SERIOUS HITS TO ITS ECONOMY. YOU ARE INFLATION’S RUNNING ABOUT 26% RIGHT NOW. THEIR IMPORT IS HAVE JUST TANKED AND THEY HAVE HAD SEVERE LOSSES AS WELL AS BEST WE KNOW, A LITTLE OVER A HUNDRED THOUSAND MEN KILLED OR WOUNDED, OVER 30,000. CIVILIANS KILLED OR WOUNDED AND SOME. 5.4 MILLION PEOPLE INTERNALLY DISPLACED AND ABOUT 8 MILLION PEOPLE WHO HAVE FLED THE COUNTRY ALTOGETHER. SO THAT’S HUGE NUMBERS. SO AS WE LOOK AT TOMORROW, THE ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY, TALK ABOUT THE FEARS THAT UKRAINE HAS FOR A POTENTIAL RUSSIAN STRIKES AND ANY SECURITY MEASURES THAT THEY’RE TAKING. IT HAS BEEN ASSUMED FOR SOME TIME THAT THE RUSSIANS WOULD BE LAUNCHING A NEW OFFENSIVE. AND THERE’S A LOT OF EVIDENCE TO SHOW THAT THEY ARE BEEFING UP THE NUMBERS OF MEN NEAR LUHANSK, LUHANSK AND DONETSK ARE THE TWO SORT OF BREAKAWAY REPUBLICS THAT VLADIMIR PUTIN ANNOUNCED THEY WERE TO THE FOUR REGIONS OF UKRAINE, THAT HE HAS ILLEGALLY ANNEXED. THE WORLD DOES NOT RECOGNIZE THE ANNEXATION, BUT THERE’S AN ASSUMPTION THAT THE OFFENSIVE THIS TIME WILL NOT BE, AS ONE EXPERT PUT IT. WE’RE NOT LOOKING AT D-DAY. IT’S NOT GOING TO BE THIS HUGE FRONTAL ASSAULT IN THE EAST. BUT THAT THEY ARE LIKELY TO MAKE A HUGE EFFORT TO FINISH THEIR TAKING CONTROL OF LUHANSK. THEY HAVE MOST OF IT. THEN TRY TO FINISH TAKING CONTROL OF DONETSK AND THEN THE UKRAINIAN ENDS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN A COUNTEROFFENSIVE. WHEN THAT RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE HAS SORT OF PEAKED OUT, IT’S THERE’S AN ASSUMPTION THAT THE FIGHTING WILL BE REALLY, REALLY HARD ON BOTH SIDES. CASUALTIES WILL PROBABLY BE HIGH. AND I SEE NO PREDICTIONS ABOUT HOW THIS PARTICULAR OFFENSIVE WILL END. BUT EVEN IF IT SHOULD EXCEED RUSSIAN EXPECTATION POINTS AND THEY TAKE ALL OF LUHANSK AND DONETSK, IT’S HARD TO KNOW WHAT HAPPENS NEXT BECAUSE WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO? AND THE UKRAINIANS, MEANWHILE, AS WE KNOW, HAVE BEEN PROMISED A PATRIOT AIR DEFENSE SYSTEM FROM THE UNITED STATES. AND RIGHT NOW WE HAVE UKRAINIAN TROOPS IN OKLAHOMA AT FORT HILL STILL TRAINING ON HOW TO USE THAT PATRIOT DEFENSE SYSTEM. NOW, I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THIS RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN JUST ANNOUNCED A DECISION AGAIN TO PULL OUT OF A KEY NUCLEAR ARMS TREATY WITH THE US. BREAK DOWN WHAT THAT MEANS AND THE IMPACT THAT THIS WOULD HAVE. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT I’M AFRAID I DON’T KNOW VERY MUCH ABOUT. OBVIOUSLY, WHEN YOU HAVE THE TWO LARGEST NUCLEAR ARSENALS IN THE WORLD, OURS AND RUSSIA’S, WE WANT TO HAVE SOUND, VERIFY, ABLE TREATY AGREEMENTS SO THAT NOTHING CAN GO WRONG WITH THOSE. AND HIM TAKING HITTING OUT OF THE TREATY IS ALARMING. WE KNOW HE’S BEEN MAKING SORT OF NOISES ABOUT NOT TAKING NUCLEAR OPTION OFF THE TABLE. IF PUSH CAME TO SHOVE, NOBODY BELIEVES HE WOULD ACTUALLY DO THAT BECAUSE IT WOULD MEAN DESTRUCTION OF RUSSIA ITSELF. BUT IS ALWAYS ALARMING WHEN TREATIES LIKE THAT ARE BROUGHT TO AN END. NOW, AT THE SAME TIME, THERE ARE FEARS ABOUT THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BEIJING AND MOSCOW. SO WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF CHINA SUPPORTS RUSSIA IN THE WAR HERE? CHINA IS OBVIOUSLY NOT HAPPY ABOUT THIS WAR AT ALL. THEY HAVE REFUSED TO CONDEMN THE WAR, BUT THEY HAVE NOT SAID THEY’RE TOTALLY ON RUSSIA’S SIDE. NOW, RUSSIA IS REALLY INCREASING ITS TRADE WITH CHINA. MOST EXPERTS BELIEVE THAT, IN FACT, THE TRADE WAR CONTINUED TRADE WITH CHINA AND WITH INDIA HAS HELPED THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY. WHETHER SANCTIONS BETTER THAN WAS IN TULSA IT. BUT RUSSIA HAS ALWAYS HAD ITS MOST HEAVILY FORTIFIED FRONTIER. THE FRONTIER WITH CHINA. THEY WORRY ABOUT CHINESE DESIGN TIRES FOR THE NOT VERY WELL INHABITED RESORT. IT’S RESOURCE RICH FAR EAST. SO WHATEVER KIND CONSCIOUS WORKING RELATIONSHIP THAT MOSCOW AND BEIJING HAVE RIGHT NOW, THEY KNOW THAT THEIR INTERESTS ARE NOT ALIGNED AND THERE IS A LOT OF RESERVATION ON THE PART OF RUSSIA. THEY HAVE MADE THEMSELVES MUCH MORE DEPENDENT ON CHINA THAN THEY WOULD EVER HAVE LIKED TO BE. NOW, MELISSA, WE ARE OUT OF TIME, BUT I QUICKLY WANT TO ASK YOU JUST AS BRIEFLY AS YOU CAN, HOW DOES THIS WAR END? NOBODY KNOWS HOW THIS WAR ENDS. IDEALLY, THE RUSSIANS WOULD BE FORCED TO RELINQUISH ALL THE TERRITORY THAT THEY HAVE TAKEN FROM UKRAINE, INCLUDING CRIMEA, WHICH THEY TOOK IN 2014. AND NOBODY KNOWS IF THAT IS A POSSIBILITY. WHAT KIND OF TERRITORIAL CONCESSIONS UKRAINE MIGHT HAVE TO MAKE TO NEGOTIATE AN END TO THE WAR? OBVIOUSLY, BOTH SIDES CURRENTLY SAY NO NEGOTIATIONS ON THIS TERRITORY, BUT WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THEY’LL BE WILLING TO DO AFTER CONTINUING HARD FIGHTING AND TERRIBLE CASUALTIES ON BOTH SIDES. SOMETHING WILL CONTINUE

OU Romanoff Center for Russian studies co-director on war in Ukraine

War in Ukraine reaches one year mark

February 24 marks one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. We spoke with the co-director of OU’s new Romanoff Center for Russian Studies to break down the overreaching implications of the war.Click the video player above to watch the full interview.

February 24 marks one year since Russia invaded Ukraine. We spoke with the co-director of OU’s new Romanoff Center for Russian Studies to break down the overreaching implications of the war.

Click the video player above to watch the full interview.