Russian fertiliser has so far dodged Western sanctions since the invasion of Ukraine, but seaborne trade patterns have undergone key changes that are making the market increasingly politically driven.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine a year ago, there have been concerns that any stoppage in Russian exports could compound the pre-existing global shortage in fertiliser and worsen the picture for global food supplies.
Increasingly, international relations are playing into export destinations, according to Harry Grimes, dry cargo research analyst at Arrow Shipbroking, with Russian fertiliser heading to countries considered politically friendly to Moscow.