BTC Fear & Greed Index Inches Higher to Signal a Bullish BTC Session

Key Insights:

  • It was a bullish Sunday, with BTC rising by 0.87% to end the day at $22,910.
  • Genesis bankruptcy court news and a bullish NASDAQ Index delivered a fourth gain from five sessions.
  • The Fear & Greed Index rose from 50/100 to 52/100 but remained within the neutral zone.

On Monday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.87%. Reversing a 0.27% loss from Sunday, BTC ended the day at $22,910. Notably, BTC revisited $23,000 for the third time since August.

After a range-bound morning, BTC fell to a mid-afternoon low of $22,497 before finding support. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,325, BTC rose to a late afternoon high of $23,169. BTC broke through the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,087 before easing back to end the day at $22,910.

The Genesis Bankruptcy and the NASDAQ Index Deliver BTC Support

It was a busier session. The first day of Genesis bankruptcy proceedings drew interest in the afternoon session.

Genesis lawyers and creditors were reportedly optimistic about resolving the disputes with creditors. Genesis lawyers also told the Court that they are exploring the possibility of selling the firm to make creditors whole. It was a crypto market-friendly start to bankruptcy proceedings, supporting the bullish start to the week.

The NASDAQ Index also delivered support, with tech stocks in rally mode. The bullish start to the week came ahead of a busy earnings calendar, with Microsoft (MSFT) and Tesla (TSLA) among the big names to release earnings this week.

The NASDAQ Index rose by 2.01%, with the S&P 500 rising by 1.19%.

Today, Genesis and FTX news will remain key drivers. However, in the afternoon session, US economic indicators and corporate earnings will also provide direction. Prelim January private sector PMIs will need to be better than expected to support a bullish session. Microsoft will release earnings results that will also draw interest.

The NASDAQ Index was down 14.5 points this morning.

NASDAQ – BTCUSD 240123 Hourly Chart

The Fear & Greed Index Remains Neutral Despite a Bullish BTC

Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index rose from 50/100 to 52/100. Despite the increase, the Index remained within the Neutral zone, with BTC unable to hold onto the $23,000 handle. Nonetheless, the third visit to $23,000 since August provided support and a move toward the Greed zone.

Uncertainty toward the US economic outlook and Fed monetary policy has pegged the Index back. The Genesis bankruptcy is another near-term headwind. A favorable outcome to the Genesis bankruptcy and an FTX revival should support an Index return to the Greed zone.

Near-term, the Index would need to return to the Greed zone (55/100) to support a BTC run at $25,000. The Index last visited the Greed zone in March 2022.

Fear & Greed 240123

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.11% to $22,936. A mixed start to the day saw BTC fall to an early low of $22,857 before rising to a high of $22,958.

BTCUSD 240123 Daily Chart

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $22,859 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $23,220 and last week’s high of $23,353. A return to $23,000 would support a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires and US stats and earnings should be market-friendly to deliver a breakout.

In the event of another extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $23,531. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $24,203.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $22,548 into play. Barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$22,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $22,187 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $21,515.

BTCUSD 240123 Hourly Chart

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $21,432. The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.

A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($21,733) would support a breakout from R1 ($23,220) to target R2 ($23,531) and $24,000. However, a fall through S1 ($22,548) would give the bears a run at S2 ($22,187) and the 50-day EMA ($21,733). A fall through the 50-day EMA would signal a shift in sentiment.

BTCUSD 240123 4 Hourly Chart